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Jan 7, 202310 min read

EM Brexit Watch 7 January 2023



IN THIS ISSUE OF BREXIT WATCH

  • The Week That Was

  • In Other News (UK)

  • In Other News (EU)

  • Opinion & Analysis

  • Think Tank Corner

  • Podcast of the Week

  • Tweets of the Week

  • Events

  • New Release

THE WEEK THAT WAS Brexit Watch is BACK! A very happy new year to you, from everyone here at European Movement UK. We hope your Christmas and festive season was full of friends, family, food and frivolity or in any which way you enjoy. This is the first Brexit Watch of 2023, and already–in a mere 7 days–we've seen a wave of stories which are exposing the calamity of Brexit (such as Starmer nicking Vote Leave’s slogan, flip-flopping on the Retained EU Law Bill and the NHS recruiting from ‘red list’ countries after Brexit loss of EU staff. You may also be glad to know that the position of Minister of Brexit Opportunities is still vacant (and it looks like Andy Robertson is out of contention).

All-in-all we are VERY keen to see how things are standing 12 months from now. So, let’s get stuck in.

Keir Starmer pledges to ‘Take Back Control’?

As Sunak announced extra maths classes, Keir Starmer delivered his first speech of the year in Stratford, East London on Thursday, announcing Labour’s “Take Back Control Bill”. Using language described by a piece in The Daily Mail as “mimicking the language of Brexit”, Starmer and Labour are proposing to devolve power from Westminster in “a completely new way of governing” as a part of the party’s current Make Brexit Work strategy (Evening Standard). The Labour Leader said that his government would “embrace” the catchphrase used by Vote Leave during the Brexit Referendum, turning it from a “slogan to a solution”.

Maybe Sunak’s slogan for the next general election will be ‘For the many, not the few’? Watch this space.

Feeling Fine and Nandy

Labour’s Shadow Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities–Lisa Nandy–has claimed that rejoining the single market is a “fantasy” (indy100). This is reminiscent of when the Tories kept telling Corbyn that there wasn’t a ‘magic money tree’. “I think there’s a strong case for [something] around universities,” Nandy added, “we want to see greater collaboration.” Nandy was being questioned about London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s desire for the UK to be back in the single market. Speaking of a desire to return to Europe, let’s see how the public is feeling...

Chaka-Chart

With Covid moving into retirement (in spite of new travel restrictions being imposed on Chinese travellers), the effects of Brexit on the UK economy are becoming clearer. “It is still too soon to assess Brexit’s long-run effects,” writes The Economist, “But the evidence so far shows that it has hurt.”

The Economist cites research from the think tank, the Centre for European Reform, which attempted to isolate the effect of Brexit by “constructing a phantom country that tracked Britain’s performance before 2016’s referendum result.”The research was based on an algorithm rooted in a set of 22 countries which operated to build “a plausible description of Britain’s path had it not voted to leave the EU” (see chart 1 here). The algorithm estimates that “by the second quarter of 2022, Brexit had hit GDP by as much as 6% relative to this counterfactual. Using the same method, he reckons Brexit dragged down investment by 11%.” And whilst investment is down, much to Vote Leave’s dismay, immigration rocketed up.


N-EU Year, New Me

Given the coverage that the effects of Brexit are starting to get, 2022 was a huge year in terms of shifting public opinion on Brexit. Here’s a round-up of the data. A Savanta survey for The Independentfound that “Leave voters (are) disillusioned with the ‘taking back of control’ they were promised” (someone should tell Keir this before he goes and adopts the slogan, oh...). Watch a concise report on this from euronews here. The same report from The Economist above presented data from the NatCen Social Research which shows that “attitudes to the Brexit project seem to have hardened.” On top of all this, UK in a Changing Europe published their latest report on Monday, on the shifting attitude of the British public.

Using their Brexit Tracker, ‘A year in Brexit: five charts exploring how public opinion on the EU has changed in 2022’, the report traced five of the key trends in the public’s attitudes to Brexit in 2022. The five key trends identified by the Think Tank were that:

  1. The economic effects of Brexit are increasingly tied up with wider economic optimism;

  2. The public see the EU as a vital partner in dealing with Russia;

  3. Voters remain highly uncertain about where the parties stand on Brexit;

  4. The growing support for rejoin is coming mainly from younger voters, and;

  5. A majority of the public think illegal immigration has risen as a result of Brexit.

Read the full report here. And see analysis on Brexit polling from Quartz here. Given that LSE research found that Brexit has “added £210 to the average household food bill in the two years to the end of 2021, because of extra red tape” (HuffPost), the data above is understandable. Cheers Nigel... (Source: @ByDonkeys)


Taking the Mick

“It's like they’re going to go and shoot your dog and you’ve handed them the gun!” is how James O’Brien described Mick Lynch’s view on Brexit (LBC). “Not quite”, Lynch countered, during their exchange on O’Brien’s show this week, “(the UK) can indeed nationalise public sector services, which you cannot do inside the European Union. You have to have liberalisation”.

This is an incorrect, common and damaging perception of the relationship between the EU and nationalisation.

In case you didn’t know, Article 345 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) states that “The Treaties shall in no way prejudice the rules in Member States (MS) governing the system of property ownership... It follows that the Treaties are also neutral as regards public or private ownership of undertakings” (European Parliament). Germany nationalised energy giant Uniper and France nationalised EDF, both whilst in the EU.

Same Old Mistakes

Over to Ireland where returning PM Leo Varadkar said that "perhaps" the Northern Ireland Protocol was a "little bit too strict" (BBC). "I'm sure we've all made mistakes in the handling of Brexit”, stated Varadkar, "there was no road map, no manual, it wasn't something that we expected would happen and we've all done our best to deal with it." The Guardian reports that pressure is mounting “for an outline of a deal before 19 January, the deadline set by the UK’s Northern Ireland secretary, Chris Heaton-Harris, to call fresh elections for Northern Ireland’s devolved government.”

Watch this story remain a prominent fixture in the headlines over the next few weeks as we edge closer to Heaton-Harris' deadline.

Slow Coach

To another mistake: Rees-Mogg’s proposed Retained EU Law Bill. A silver lining is that “the House of Lords are preparing to slow down” (The Guardian). Whilst Science Minister George Freeman told The Telegraph that the government is likely to slow the process, suggesting that the figure of laws being initially analysed could be as low as 400 opposed to the initial 4000. Baby steps... “My instinct would be to focus on the top 10 percent of daft regulations that are holding us back", said Freeman, “get those done, and then do the next 10 percent. Whitehall would love nothing more than a massive exercise of jurisprudential, legal, parliamentary wranglings over it.

We are running a campaign for the government to drop this “disreputable” bill, not slow it (The Times). If you haven’t already, read more and sign our petition here. Even Boris’ dad is against it (The Independent).

To close, here’s our video of choice for this week: Brexit two years later: Why the UK is struggling | DW News.



IN OTHER NEWS (EU)


OPINION & ANALYSIS The wreckage of Brexit is all around us. How long can our politicians indulge in denial? (The Guardian) Guardian columnist John Harris outlines how the longer both parties ignore the uncomfortable facts of Brexit politics will be flooded with dangerous conspiracies and betrayal myths.

Martin Fletcher, former foreign editor of the Times claims that there is little hope of rejoining the EU anytime soon and that Remainers need to stop their campaigning, bite the bullet and accept Brexit.

INews columnist Yasmin Alibhai-Brown outlines the year ahead and discusses how populism, misinformation and toxicity has led to Britain becoming one of the sickest countries in the West.

Michael Heseltine: Fifty years ago, we joined the EU – today, I deplore the deception of Brexit (The Independent) European Movement President, Michael Heseltine, reflects on the last 50 years since the UK joined the European Economic Community as well as Britain's relationship with Europe well before then. THINK TANK CORNER

The Cost of Brexit to June 2022(Centre for European Reform) John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, estimates Brexit reduced Britain's GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022. According to the Centre for European Reform his model avoids the cherry-picking of data and performs better than its critics’ methods.


PODCAST OF THE WEEK Where will we be in 2023? (The Rest is Politics) Join Alastair and Rory for a bonus episode as they discuss their political predictions for 2023 from everything to the War in Ukraine, the future leaders of Britain, energy bills, the strikes and a potential future housing crisis. TWEETS OF THE WEEK EVENTS

The Art of Persuasion: Part 2 (Training Event – re-run) A substantial proportion of the people we talk to on street stalls and on doorsteps are potential recruits to the pro-EU cause: they include ‘soft leavers’, who are not committed to Brexit, ‘lapsed remainers’ who have accepted Brexit as a fait accompli, and those who have not formed a view. How can we persuade people who are not yet pro-EU to change their minds? A different approach, “Deep Canvassing”, aims to change political opinions by means of a non-confrontational conversation, using empathic listening and real-life stories in preference to argument and presentation of facts and figures. Developed in the United States, Deep Canvassing is backed by a strong evidence base, and has been used to good effect in many campaigns, including the 2020 presidential election. By popular demand, a training event held on October 17th will be re-run on January 17th (6pm). The session will be facilitated by two of the webinar presenters, Ella Barrett and Richard Kilpatrick. For eligibility information and to register in advance for this meeting visit https://buytickets.at/grassrootsforeurope1/81675

UK- EU relations: past, present and future (UK in a Changing Europe)

Marking three years since the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, and 50 years since its accession to the European Economic Community, on 24th Jan 2023 (1:30-5pm) UK in a Changing Europe will bring together leading authorities to discuss the UK/EU relationship. Panellists include former EU Commissioners, journalists, academics, and politicians. To attend the event either virtually or in person, sign up here Wales, Europe and the Future

On Saturday 28th January (1:30-3pm) Wales for Europe are hosting an event alongside Neil Kinnock covering ways in which Wales can build a strong future with Europe as we look into the future. The event is designed to build on this conversation that began before the pandemic and will continue to be ever more relevant in the future. You can purchase a ticket for the event on Eventbrite here!


NEW RELEASE

The first comprehensive study of the UK’s grassroots anti-Brexit movement that emerged after the June 2016 referendum. Studies of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (“Brexit”) have largely focused on the role of politicians and political parties, on the one hand, and the characteristics of Leave and Remain voters on the other. The Failure of Remain offers the first comprehensive study of the UK’s grassroots anti-Brexit movement. Emerging in the weeks and months following the June 2016 referendum, this movement was the most significant and wide-scale mobilization of pro-European support that the UK had ever witnessed. In The Failure of Remain Adam Fagan (professor of European politics at King’s College London) and Stijn van Kessel (senior lecturer in European politics at Queen Mary University of London) assess participants’ ideologies, arguments, and strategies. An exclusive discount will be given to all members find out more here.

In November, BylineTV launched a Crowdfunder for a Brexit documentary, fronted by Dr Mike Galsworthy - founder of Scientists for EU, director of the Bylines Network, and an Ambassador of European Movement.

The Crowdfunder quickly hit target and was stretched to £90,000 in order to expand the ambition to a full feature-length 90-min documentary. As part of the research, BylineTV have put out a call for the "hive research" contributions of its supporter base. Specifically, they are looking for any data, case studies, or links to videos & graphics that link to politician/campaign group claims or quotes (especially videos) around Brexit. Any such info/links should be mailed to BrexitDoc@Byline.TV - and contributions will be sorted into categories from there.

The aim of the documentary is to provide a fully authoritative account on "the mess we're in, how we got into this mess - and how we get out of this mess." So any key archival footage/data that fits into this is appreciated. See more here. THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEK!Please note that the external sources quoted or linked to in this newsletter do not necessarily represent the view of European Movement UK.

In case you didn't know, you can view, amend, or edit any part of your membership through the membership page on our website. If you ever have any issues or questions regarding your membership, please contact our Membership Team at membership@europeanmovement.co.uk.

This week you may have noticed BW is displayed in a slightly different format; we have been fortunate enough to test out new software. If you have any feedback on the new layout, please contact our software engineer Patrick McCoy at patrick.mccoy@europeanmovement.co.uk. Donate to the movement


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